by Conrad Carlberg | Released July 2014 | ISBN: 9780133929621

OverviewIn just three hours, discover how to create accurate forecasts and predictions with Microsoft Excel's powerful predictive analytics tools!DescriptionMoneyballmade predictive analytics famous: now, you can put it to work! In just three hours of expert video, Conrad Carlberg will teach you all the core skills you need to create accurate predictions of your own with Microsoft Excel–hands-on! Learn how to use Excel to design and run the two most basic analyses used in quantitative forecasting: smoothing and regression. Explore the self-correcting nature of exponential smoothing, discover how to use autoregression to create effective forecasts, and get comfortable using Excel's powerful Data Analysis and Solver add-ins. Understand trends in time series, and master differencing, the most important technique for dealing with them. Finally, learn about ACFs and PACFs, and uncover their patterns to identify the best ways to forecast any given time series. These hands-on videos are accompanied by Excel workbooks containing all sample data and analyses: workbooks you can easily replicate and adapt for your own needs!About the InstructorConrad Carlbergis a multiple recipient of Microsoft's Most Valuable Professional (MVP) award for Microsoft Excel. He has written twelve books about quantitative analysis with Excel, including Predictive Analytics: Microsoft® Excel. As President of Network Control Systems, Inc., he leads the development of quality control and forecasting tools for the health industry. Carlberg holds a Ph.D. in statistics from the University of Colorado, and has 25 years' experience applying advanced analytical techniques.Skill LevelAll LevelsBeginnerIntermediateAdvancedWhat You Will LearnThe essentials and basic terminology of predictive analysisHow to use Excel's core predictive analysis tools, including the Data Analysis and Solver add-insHow to perform quantitative analyses using smoothing and regressionHow to create effective forecasts using autoregressionHow trends in time series work, and how to handle the challenges they createHow to choose the best approach to forecast any time seriesWho Should Take This CourseEvery businessperson, scientist, analyst, and student who wants to master the essentials of predictive analyticsCourse RequirementsBasic experience with Microsoft ExcelBasic knowledge of simple statistical analysis techniquesTable of ContentsIntroductionPart 1: Moving AveragesLesson 1: Length of Moving AveragesLesson 2: Length's Effect on LevelLesson 3: Weighted and Unweighted Moving AveragesLesson 4: The Moving Average Tool and TrendlinesPart 2: SmoothingLesson 5: Self-CorrectionLesson 6: Smoothing Constant and ExponentiationLesson 7: The Exponential Smoothing ToolLesson 8: Detrending and RetrendngLesson 9: Choosing the Smoothing ConstantPart 3: RegressionLesson 10: Simple, two-variable regressionLesson 11: TREND() and LINEST()Lesson 12: Problems Using Time as a PredictorPart 4: AutoregressionLesson 13: Simple single lag autoregressionLesson 14: Correlograms and moving average time seriesSummaryAbout LiveLessons Video TrainingLiveLessons Video Training series publishes hundreds of hands-on, expert-led video tutorials covering a wide selection of technology topics designed to teach you the skills you need to succeed. This professional and personal technology video series features world-leading author instructors published by your trusted technology brands: Addison-Wesley, Cisco Press, IBM Press, Pearson IT Certification, Prentice Hall, Sams, and Que. Topics include: IT Certification, Programming, Web Development, Mobile Development, Home and Office Technologies, Business and Management, and more. View all LiveLessons on InformIT at: http://www.informit.com/livelessons Show and hide more

1. Introduction
   • Predictive Analytics with Excel LiveLessons: Introduction 00:03:58
2. Part 1: Moving Averages
   • Learning Objectives 00:03:26
   • Lesson 1 Length 00:10:57
   • Lesson 2 Length and Level 00:10:47
   • Lesson 3 Moving Averages: Weighted and Unweighted 00:11:47
   • Lesson 4 The Moving Average Tool; Trendlines 00:16:22
3. Part 2: Smoothing
   • Learning Objectives 00:04:16
   • Lesson 5 Self-correction 00:11:11
   • Lesson 6 Smoothing Constant and Exponentiation 00:06:54
   • Lesson 7 The Exponential Smoothing Tool 00:15:36
   • Lesson 8 Detrending and Retrending 00:15:59
   • Lesson 9 Choosing the Smoothing Constant 00:12:00
4. Part 3: Regression
   • Learning Objectives 00:01:49
   • Lesson 10 Simple, Two-Variable Regression 00:14:54
   • Lesson 11 The regression equation 00:14:48
   • Lesson 12 TREND() and LINEST() 00:12:34
5. Part 4: Autoregression
   • Learning Objectives 00:01:41
   • Lesson 13 Simple Single Lag Autoregression 00:13:38
   • Lesson 14 Correlograms and Moving Average Time Series 00:08:01
6. Summary
   • Predictive Analytics with Excel LiveLessons: Summary 00:01:18
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